Risk Analysis / Acceptable Risk Levels

TheBigAppleTime is so precious, is it worth taking extra unnecessary risk to increase our pleasure in the limited amount of time we have?

I would rather have a 50% chance of being killed prematurely and living an awesome life than have a 100% chance of dying with the rest of humanity with little to show.

https://www.newschoolers.com/videos/watch/742293/Live-Your-Dreams---Motivational-Music---Les-brown

Just remember that risks can have very severe, negative consequences. For example, that time your father took the risk of "seeing how it felt without the condom for just a second." His life has been ruined since, on account of the mistake that was you.

Please tell your family BEFORE you start speedflying. It would be a terribly irresponsible deed to the paragliding community to have your family sue or close down a site on behalf of your death because they are ignorant to the way this sport works and the assumed self-responsibility that comes with it.

I've had 3 friends die speedflying. One, who was a very good friend, died after he had a collapse and was put into a coma. His family had to make a decision to literally pull the plug on his life support. I was in the hospital and saw the torment this decision took on them. To watch someone who goes from having the world at his finger tips, being on the Bachelorette, and someone you've traveled to multiple countries and continents with die in that way is a difficult thing to deal with. Another one died while on the phone with his wife. Then the other on a routine flight in Hawaii.

The point of this is not to scare you away. It's a beautiful sport and is great for the right people. Many people do it safely, but lots of people get injured severely or die and that's part of it. However, if you are having "second thoughts" I would highly recommend not doing it at this moment in your life. It doesn't sound like you have done any of the basic introductions such as getting a p2 or even studying basic weather. Hopefully I am wrong, but if I am not the likelihood that you will be killed or injured is very high. The thing with speedflying is that it's so easy to do when it goes well, but it just takes one mistake. All you need to do is fly into an unforeseen rotor, have a partial collapse, and a 40 ft fall will kill you. You could also be lucky and go your whole speedflying career without even stubbing a toe. Maybe you have someone die right next to you and, trust me, that will serve you a piece of humble pie pretty quickly. There's a variety of outcomes and they can be extremely positive, negative or somewhere in between.

I started BASE jumping for the wrong reasons and did it the wrong way in the beginning. As someone who can relate to the eagerness to start something so fulfilling, exciting, and dangerous, I hope my words will help in your decision making process. We get one life and people will always tell you what they think YOU should do with it. Go do what you have to do and have fun! Just understand the severity of what you are playing with.

MitchPeePlease tell your family BEFORE you start speedflying. It would be a terribly irresponsible deed to the paragliding community to have your family sue or close down a site on behalf of your death because they are ignorant to the way this sport works and the assumed self-responsibility that comes with it.

I've had 3 friends die speedflying. One, who was a very good friend, died after he had a collapse and was put into a coma. His family had to make a decision to literally pull the plug on his life support. I was in the hospital and saw the torment this decision took on them. To watch someone who goes from having the world at his finger tips, being on the Bachelorette, and someone you've traveled to multiple countries and continents with die in that way is a difficult thing to deal with. Another one died while on the phone with his wife. Then the other on a routine flight in Hawaii.

The point of this is not to scare you away. It's a beautiful sport and is great for the right people. Many people do it safely, but lots of people get injured severely or die and that's part of it. However, if you are having "second thoughts" I would highly recommend not doing it at this moment in your life. It doesn't sound like you have done any of the basic introductions such as getting a p2 or even studying basic weather. Hopefully I am wrong, but if I am not the likelihood that you will be killed or injured is very high. The thing with speedflying is that it's so easy to do when it goes well, but it just takes one mistake. All you need to do is fly into an unforeseen rotor, have a partial collapse, and a 40 ft fall will kill you. You could also be lucky and go your whole speedflying career without even stubbing a toe. Maybe you have someone die right next to you and, trust me, that will serve you a piece of humble pie pretty quickly. There's a variety of outcomes and they can be extremely positive, negative or somewhere in between.

I started BASE jumping for the wrong reasons and did it the wrong way in the beginning. As someone who can relate to the eagerness to start something so fulfilling, exciting, and dangerous, I hope my words will help in your decision making process. We get one life and people will always tell you what they think YOU should do with it. Go do what you have to do and have fun! Just understand the severity of what you are playing with.

Jeeze, sorry to hear about your friends Mitch. That's really rough. If you don't mind elaborating on the wrong reasons for starting base jumping and what the wrong way to do it was?

My good friend and I both bought wings, and are flying down to a leading flight school in the states to do our P2's and learn how to use them, so we won't just be jumping in blind. I've been doing a ton of research, and trying to find as much information as I can. Unfortunately in my area of Canada there isn't much of a community as far as I can find.

I honestly can't tell my family. It would take years off my parents life due to stress. They are so over protective, and would never understand, and would constantly worry. As far as lawsuits go, we don't really do that in Canada. I think writing them an "if I am dead" letter and explaining everything in it, if should such circumstances arise is sufficient. I'm thinking after a couple years of flying I'll let them know if they don't find out by then anyways.

Anyways appreciate the heartfelt well thought out response.

I do some stuff that other normal people would consider risky like riding a motorcycle, downhill biking, skiing, cliff jumping, yada yada yada. Sure the statistics are against me on these things but they are make me tick and I love doing that kind of stuff. Its weird but I feel I can control myself and have the presence of mind and skill to do it even though it may be something stupid and new to try. If there is an accident, I know its because I messed up somewhere or found my body limit and I'll have to revealuate what I'm doing, or accept the risk that it could happen again. But for the things I love to do, I'm fine with the risk.

dmskiI do some stuff that other normal people would consider risky like riding a motorcycle, downhill biking, skiing, cliff jumping, yada yada yada. Sure the statistics are against me on these things but they are make me tick and I love doing that kind of stuff. Its weird but I feel I can control myself and have the presence of mind and skill to do it even though it may be something stupid and new to try. If there is an accident, I know its because I messed up somewhere or found my body limit and I'll have to revealuate what I'm doing, or accept the risk that it could happen again. But for the things I love to do, I'm fine with the risk.

If I wrote anything on this thread it would be the exact same as this. Plus, all error and danger I put myself in is on me, very rarely with activities i do, I can blame the faults on my gear, it's usually just my knowledge.

TheBigAppleJeeze, sorry to hear about your friends Mitch. That's really rough. If you don't mind elaborating on the wrong reasons for starting base jumping and what the wrong way to do it was?

My good friend and I both bought wings, and are flying down to a leading flight school in the states to do our P2's and learn how to use them, so we won't just be jumping in blind. I've been doing a ton of research, and trying to find as much information as I can. Unfortunately in my area of Canada there isn't much of a community as far as I can find.

I honestly can't tell my family. It would take years off my parents life due to stress. They are so over protective, and would never understand, and would constantly worry. As far as lawsuits go, we don't really do that in Canada. I think writing them an "if I am dead" letter and explaining everything in it, if should such circumstances arise is sufficient. I'm thinking after a couple years of flying I'll let them know if they don't find out by then anyways.

Anyways appreciate the heartfelt well thought out response.

Good to hear on the p2. Those basic lessons are going to be a good foundation to go from and will definitely help if you want to do the sport long-term safely. Research on anabatic and katabatic winds will also play a huge part in weather analysis but your instructor will teach you all of that better than I ever could.

I think that idea of keeping secrets of this magnitude is extremely bad. If you really want to do a sport like this, can you be honest with yourself if you can't be honest with them? Do you think that their over-protectionism has lead to you maybe wanting to do something like this in a sub-conscious act of rebellion? These are questions you have to ask yourself because the better you know yourself and your real intentions, the easier it is to understand how you are going to act in risk/reward analysis. Also understanding your current limits will be a big part of it and that stems from honesty to one's self. I think there were some elements of rebellion, self-proving, and egotism in my beginning of base, and that's something I am referring to when I say the wrong reasons.

i'd rather my kid be speedflying/paragliding than riding a motorcycle

Theres a fine line between living life on the edge & to the fullest and being reckless in my mind. Theres more than being able to huck that biggest cliff, etc. In a less morbid way, every season of a sport leads into the next for me and I dont want to be hurt for it (or die for that matter). Like end of ski season=beginning of bike season. You don't have to be overly cautious to be able to enjoy life and "have something to show."

Its all calculated risk, just figuring whether you can beat the odds so to say. I push myself on things, but also have the balls to back off from something that isn't worth it.

JuliusJTheres a fine line between living life on the edge & to the fullest and being reckless in my mind. Theres more than being able to huck that biggest cliff, etc. In a less morbid way, every season of a sport leads into the next for me and I dont want to be hurt for it (or die for that matter). Like end of ski season=beginning of bike season. You don't have to be overly cautious to be able to enjoy life and "have something to show."

Its all calculated risk, just figuring whether you can beat the odds so to say. I push myself on things, but also have the balls to back off from something that isn't worth it.

Bingo. Couldn't agree more. And to the guy on motorcycles, they are stupidly dangerous in my opinion. That is the one thing where I can do everything right and yet I still could have some idiot plow into me because of a simple reason like talking on the cell phone or not looking over their shoulder. But I enjoy it too much to be affraid of what could happen. Instead, I prep with gear and mentally make sure I'm there to ride in that kind of traffic. To be honest though, city riding is not as fun to me, and there is way more risk with someone possibly going to hit me. Living in a small town I loved it way more than being in a big city since I could just hop on and have fun 5 minutes outside of town.

JuliusJTheres a fine line between living life on the edge & to the fullest and being reckless in my mind.

So well said.

I consider myself a physical risk taker and many of my friends would call me "crazy" or "reckless" (which I don't have a problem with) but they don't know how much thought I put into things before doing them.

Theres a big difference between the drunk fool who tries to do a backflip off a car and me doing a backflip off a car under my own terms. The other night my friend is just like "haha yo do a backflip" and I straight up said no because I wasn't comfortable with the room clearance even thought theres a 99% it would have been fine and he's like "dude you've flipped outta trees wtf?"

A big part of risk/reward is making sure everything you do is completely under your own terms. Never be pressured into things that you don't feel 100% about (different then being hyped up by friends like Thalls triple pump up)

Don't just jump into speed winging. Thats unsafe and disregards the unwritten extreme sports code of conduct (risking injury/death to yourself, others, the sports legal standing, liability problems, and the reputation of companies/organizations)

Learn, study, practice and most importantly- know the risks involved. If you really want to get into speedflying, don't just hop in to it, work towards being the meanest cunt under a canopy.


This is a great thread and Im happy people are taking it pretty seriously, props nsg.

After having friends periodically die over the past four years, I have been thinking about the balance between living life to the fullest without exposing my health to a disproportionate level of risk. On one hand, holy shit - it's very easy to die due to factors completely outside of my control. The fact that I'm alive right now is a fucking miracle. On the other hand, to fear death is to fear life, for a life of fear is no life at all. Funny how I can feel so strongly feel to seemingly contradictory emotions about my own mortality.

What it has all boiled down to is that my physical risk tolerance has dropped, while my life-choices risk tolerance has skyrocketed.

For example, I used to throw myself off huge cliffs but was awkward around girls. Now I'm just the opposite. Life, man...

lIllIThe fact that I'm alive right now is a fucking miracle. On the other hand, to fear death is to fear life, for a life of fear is no life at all.

Thats exactly the thing, I mean you could drop dead at any instant. There are external factors that sometimes you may have no control over; take driving, you might be the safest driver in the world, but some out of control a-hole nails you and its over. So you can't live in fear of death and should be living the life to the fullest. That said, stuff like wingsuits and motorcycles, shit even skiing dramatically increase those chances of dying. So live life and do what does make you happy, but realize there are potentially consequences.

I have looked back at a few of the things I've done in the past and thought, holy shit, I almost died, what the fuck was I doing, but I don't think any of those are ski related and many of them are alcohol related.

I know I draw a line somewhere, but to be honest it's hard to know exactly where that line is until I find myself in a particular situation. It's very much a gut feel type of thing. I know that I'm willing to take more risks in skiing than I usually would in other situations because I feel so comfortable with the sport having done it all my life.

Most of the times when I am risking my life like paragliding or whatever I'm doing it because I like the thrill. I just try to make sure I'm not being reckless and have control over my self.
OP just make sure your prepared and really learn to fly before you get ahead of yourself. If you have to keep it from your family maybe reconsider?

I think Fight Club manages to articulate the ideas of this thread pretty well. Yes, you only have one life, but why just follow in line, live safely, and do exactly what you're told?Why do exactly what society has laid out and dictated for you? To me, that's not living, that's just existing, and I say these things because right now, I feel like I'm just existing and not living.

Ultimately it's your life, do what you want with it, but as everyone else said, think of the impact, just don't think you need to live the life someone else wants you to.

"This is your life and its ending one moment at a time."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zH9OTQtuGKg

probably whatever opinions your badass self has of dying will drastically change if you were about to die

smuggsprobably whatever opinions your badass self has of dying will drastically change if you were about to die

It's hard to say, obviously if your faced with that you are going to be second guessing some life choices. I'm no bad ass believe me. I'm actually a huge nerd, have 8 years of post secondary, and work two jobs in my field now. Have a solid group of friends, no problem with women, no problem with money, everything to live for. Sometimes it just feels really mundane. The grass is always greener right.

stoggiemanI think Fight Club manages to articulate the ideas of this thread pretty well. Yes, you only have one life, but why just follow in line, live safely, and do exactly what you're told?Why do exactly what society has laid out and dictated for you? To me, that's not living, that's just existing, and I say these things because right now, I feel like I'm just existing and not living.

Ultimately it's your life, do what you want with it, but as everyone else said, think of the impact, just don't think you need to live the life someone else wants you to.

"This is your life and its ending one moment at a time."

Agreed, following along with society only gets people very far. It's those that break the mold, that stand out, that live without fear, those are the people that seem to succeed.

MitchPeeGood to hear on the p2. Those basic lessons are going to be a good foundation to go from and will definitely help if you want to do the sport long-term safely. Research on anabatic and katabatic winds will also play a huge part in weather analysis but your instructor will teach you all of that better than I ever could.

I think that idea of keeping secrets of this magnitude is extremely bad. If you really want to do a sport like this, can you be honest with yourself if you can't be honest with them? Do you think that their over-protectionism has lead to you maybe wanting to do something like this in a sub-conscious act of rebellion? These are questions you have to ask yourself because the better you know yourself and your real intentions, the easier it is to understand how you are going to act in risk/reward analysis. Also understanding your current limits will be a big part of it and that stems from honesty to one's self. I think there were some elements of rebellion, self-proving, and egotism in my beginning of base, and that's something I am referring to when I say the wrong reasons.

In the past I would tell my parents about activities like this to get a rise out of them. Now I just don't want them to have to deal with thinking about it. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree but I think I have rolled pretty far. The sport just looks fun as fuck! That is my intention, to go have fun, explore the mountains in YET another way, enjoy natures beauty. That's what I live for. I think part of it might be proving something to myself, pushing my limits.

BombayMost of the times when I am risking my life like paragliding or whatever I'm doing it because I like the thrill. I just try to make sure I'm not being reckless and have control over my self.
OP just make sure your prepared and really learn to fly before you get ahead of yourself. If you have to keep it from your family maybe reconsider?

I don't have to keep it from my family I just think for their own health it's better they don't know, and for the sake of maintaining a healthy relationship.

I appreciate everyone's input to this discussion, it's been thought provoking and helpful. Can't wait to get my wings!!

Take whatever sheet of paper that lists what is and isn't "acceptable" and burn that shit.

That really doesn't matter.

Life is just a long string of options/choices. You weigh the pros and cons and do the best you can to have an enjoyable life that doesn't fuck everyone else over and hopefully doesn't get you killed.

Our sport is considered insanely risky by some. Why would you choose to do flips off jumps and slide down handrails in the street when you can get a nice office job, a house in the suburbs with a yard, and watch tv?

To us skiing is something that is a part of us, beyond a hobby, a passion that drives us and keeps us going. Without it we feel empty, and lost. Is it dangerous of course. There are always threads on here about injuries, sometimes really serious ones. That doesn't stop us because this is a calculated risk. We love what we're doing, we understand that it's dangerous but this is a necessary thing for us to live a truly happy life.

If there's something you want to do, think about it, weigh the options and then go with that.

I really shouldn't be riding the park any more, and it will probably kill me at some point, but I can't help it. If I quit I would feel lost and empty. It's one of those things that just makes sense to me. There are a few things in life I can't live without and that's one of them.

Will this risk you want to take enhance your life? If you're concerned make sure you take every precaution possible and know what you're doing. Does that make it safe, no but it's you life.

There's a guy that's base jumped over 3k times. To me that's insane. But that's a calculated risk he feels he needs to take to live a full and happy life. I say good for him.

I'd personally rather live 10 years, really live for that 10 year period than make it to 80 or 90 without much more excitement than the occasional game of golf or a trip to old country buffet.

I don't want to die but I'd rather take some risks and live it as full as I can. I mean fuck it, I could take very minimal risks, eat healthy, quit skiing/snowboarding and read books and then get hit by a car on the way to the bookstore or something.

Even if you live super carefully there's no guarantee you're going to live a full life. You only have one, but if you're not enjoying it what the hells the point.

TheBigAppleI'm actually a huge nerd, have 8 years of post secondary, and work two jobs in my field now.

Some really great insight and reading in this thread.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your post secondary degree and what field are you working in?

I'm finishing up my last few semesters in undergrad and I like hearing other people's story and how they ended up where they did.

Use an EMRP of 5%, you should be grand #Saurin2014

Use an EMRP of 5%, you should be grand #Saurin2014

Phil-X-So well said.

I consider myself a physical risk taker and many of my friends would call me "crazy" or "reckless" (which I don't have a problem with) but they don't know how much thought I put into things before doing them.

Theres a big difference between the drunk fool who tries to do a backflip off a car and me doing a backflip off a car under my own terms. The other night my friend is just like "haha yo do a backflip" and I straight up said no because I wasn't comfortable with the room clearance even thought theres a 99% it would have been fine and he's like "dude you've flipped outta trees wtf?"

A big part of risk/reward is making sure everything you do is completely under your own terms. Never be pressured into things that you don't feel 100% about (different then being hyped up by friends like Thalls triple pump up)

Don't just jump into speed winging. Thats unsafe and disregards the unwritten extreme sports code of conduct (risking injury/death to yourself, others, the sports legal standing, liability problems, and the reputation of companies/organizations)

Learn, study, practice and most importantly- know the risks involved. If you really want to get into speedflying, don't just hop in to it, work towards being the meanest cunt under a canopy.


This is a great thread and Im happy people are taking it pretty seriously, props nsg.

I like this.

stoggiemanI think Fight Club manages to articulate the ideas of this thread pretty well. Yes, you only have one life, but why just follow in line, live safely, and do exactly what you're told?Why do exactly what society has laid out and dictated for you? To me, that's not living, that's just existing, and I say these things because right now, I feel like I'm just existing and not living.

Ultimately it's your life, do what you want with it, but as everyone else said, think of the impact, just don't think you need to live the life someone else wants you to.

"This is your life and its ending one moment at a time."

>actually taking anything from fight club and believing in it
If you truly believed in it, you would be outside right now ya yuppie

https://www.newschoolers.com/videos/watch/742956/Crazy-Speed-Wing-Crash--Must-see-

honestly, I've been going with if it's enjoyable and the chance of death is there, it's worth it. Adrenaline is probably the coolest thing on the planet and I really like chasing it. If I were you I would read up on weather patterns, like someone else said, and fucking send it.