From the US geological suvey, Oct 14th
Mammoth Mountain, a young volcano on the rim of Long Valley Caldera, was built by numerous eruptions between 220,000 and 50,000 years ago. Volcanoes in the Mono-Inyo Craters volcanic chain, which extends from just south of Mammoth Mountain to the north shore of Mono Lake, have erupted often over the past 40,000 years. During the last 5,000 years, an eruption has broken out somewhere along this chain every 250 to 700 years. The Inyo Craters and nearby lava domes were formed by a series of small to moderate eruptions 550 to 600 years ago, and the most recent eruptions along the volcanic chain took place about 250 years ago at Paoha Island in Mono Lake.
The pattern of volcanic activity over the past 5,000 years suggests that the next eruption in the Long Valley area will most likely happen somewhere along the Mono-Inyo volcanic chain. However, the probability of such an eruption occurring in any given year is less than 1%. This is comparable to the annual chance of a magnitude 8 earthquake (like the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake) along the San Andreas Fault in coastal California or of an eruption from one of the more active Cascade Range volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, such as Mount Rainier.
As long as increased volcanic unrest (including earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and CO2 gas emissions) continues in the Long Valley area, the chances of an eruption occurring in the near future will remain somewhat increased. However, evidence from large volcanic areas and calderas worldwide shows that unrest, such as the current activity in eastern California, can persist for decades or even centuries without leading to an eruption. Nevertheless, recent eruptions at Rabaul Caldera in Papua New Guinea (1994) and the Izu volcanic complex in Japan (1989) following short periods of unrest emphasize the need to closely monitor restless calderas.
probobly more info than you needed, but hey....
