Really, really good chance it will be King's Speech.
To people saying Toy Story 3, I just don't think it's that likely that an animated movie will win this year.
To people saying True Grit, it doesn't seem like there's enough hype.
To people saying Black Swan, maybe. Given that it won at the Spirit awards last night, who knows.
To people saying Inception, it's possible, but the Academy has a history of not liking Christopher Nolan. The fact that he was nominated was sort of a big deal.
To people saying Social Network, I personally would like that to win as well. But the problem is that it came out a while ago and it doesn't have momentum anymore.
The problem with the Oscars is that it's often based on momentum. If a film came out early in the year and was really great, like Social Network, it will still have lost it's momentum by the time the Oscars roll around. But King's Speech just recently came out and still has sooo much hype and momentum, giving it a good shot at winning.
Granted, I haven't seen King's Speech so I have no clue if I would actually want it to win or not.