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Anyone's guess. Basically it looks like London and Scotland will massively vote for remain. Much of the rest of the country will be Leave. And who wins will more or less depend on turnouts, which don't look as high as remain would probably like.
So I spend 4 years getting a degree, choose to take a year out before getting a real job and then some mongoloid pensioners who are scared of foreigners make a move almost certain to destroy UK industry, at least in the short term?
I guess I'll just stay in the safe academic bubble then.
We should just take everyone who voted for leave and put them in their own little self contained economy so the rest of us don't have to deal with the bullshit economic downturn that will eventually come out of this decision.
Well, generally speaking, it has been Great Britain that has given some balance to mainland Europe's power couple of France & Germany. Without Great Britain in the mix, the future of mainland Europe is controlled by France & Germany now more than ever. I don't think this is a "doom & gloom" situation, but it is certainly not a better move for the rest of Europe.
Also the best part of referenda for neutral outsiders is the day after, with salty social media tears and banter, and were regardless of outcome it's always a fun day.
The leave campaign played on the emotions of a lot of people, I think.
The craziest fact I've heard so far is Swansea, Wales second city, just received millions in EU funding for its university campus only for the city to then have a majority vote to leave the EU.....
For all it's neat presentation and quality css, which I know matters most to you, this study overlooks a lot (i.e. it's garbage). For example, it doesn't consider the EU's interests in preventing further nationalism as a difficulty in negotiating trade agreements; nor does it consider the investment of the rebate, which covers industries the UK government barely talk about.
It's exactly the kinda trite I'd expect from an investment company trying to keep things stable.
VinnieFfor all the people not liking the vote, look on the bright side; Cameron is gone!
But the frontrunners for the Conservative leadership are Boris Johnson, who shares much ideology with Trump; and Michael Gove, who said 'The public are fed up of experts' and, while education secretary, 'I wan't to make all schools above average performers'.
DrZoidbergSo is the US accepting British refugeesnow?
I joke about running to the US, but I'm a British/Polish dual national so I can still move to Yurop. If Scotland leaves I'll be a triple national...
There's a couple things I've noticed this campaign that I figured I should probably mention.
Facts are overrated. In the hands of a speaker, blogger, vlogger, journalist, or even an internet shitposter facts are chosen selectively to reinforce arguments. A good example of this would be the £350M a week number that got banded around by the leave campaign. This number had roots in fact. That doesn't make it a valid point though, because it was extremely misrepresented. Remain campaigners, in an effort to provide evidence of how much of a lie this is, would deconstruct it down to a more realistic number, then divide by the total population of the UK (62 M), and come out with 30p a day, again a misrepresentation. Both sides using bullshit manipulation in order to persuade people.
Secondly, Corbyn must go. He was tasked by Labour party backers and members to lead the remain campaign, instead we got the Conservative civil war. Corbyns attempts at campaigning for remain did more harm than good. He showed no leadership, he should not be leading the opposition. One of the few positives I took from today was the vote of no confidence in him, given that virtually none of the MPs wanted him a leader in the first place I'd be surprised if that doesn't go through.
Only good thing about the UK leaving EU is they could have rec weed. Can't have rec weed and be in EU. That is why Netherlands had to rewrite weed laws. Amsterdam you are safe in the weed cafes but getting weed to shops is where the risk is. UK can look forward to bad loans from IMF which will force them to privatize infrastructure if they stay outside EU. American millennials should take brenxit as a warning if they don't show up to vote, their generation will be under attack by baby boomers like in UK. Making America great again is code for bringing generation outsource to full power again.
Democracy is alive and well in Britain.
The ripples will stop soon, hoping for an EFTA style deal and more visa free work and travel both ways to the commonwealth and wider commonwealth like Nepal. Erasmus is staying, the US backtracked on its statements, no issue with NATO, trade will be fine etc. The IN campaign was a massive bluff and it will come out more with time.
Now we are away from the stifling political entity and now can deal like EFTA... I voted purely on the issue of sovereignty and democracy and when Juncker said 'no reform is possible'... it may have been "not so bad" now but when is the line drawn on slow slow changes and removal of democracy by the centralisation of government??? It is a shame the brexit passed on the issue of immigration but oh well. I am a European, that does not mean the EU is! I am a proud European and British person, I hate the EU politics and wasteful beauracracy, removal of the rights of the voter far away and unseen. The EU has become not what it was made for and that will become clearer and clearer. I took the libertarian stance in my opinion for steering clear of the federalisation of Europe. I have lived in Switzerland and seen life in Europe out of the EU. The UK will do just fine!!! Loving the can't lose graciously 'ness' of the remainees right now. Democracy spoke, let's move forward and progress, not regress. It is Great Britain!
The amount of interviews on TV/online about people who voted leave but now regret it as they "didn't know what they were getting themselves into" is ridiculous. If I wasn't affected by this shitstorm it would be almost comical.
Guess this goes to show, never let people make a logical decision based off emotion. Doesnt end well
I really fail to understand why its so important to be in the EU or why its racist to leave. Since when is not letting people live and work in a country they are not citizens of racist?
Also, why would trade agreements be an issue, there has been fair trade with EU and their will be without it.
I dont understand why a whole bunch of countries need to have a euro as well. It seems like each country will be much worse off because of countries with bad economic policies, versus countries with good economic policies.
can someone please tell me why the UK leaving EU is so horrendous? i just keep hearing its racist and bad for the economy, but from what i see people just want to be able to run things in their own country their own way.
and also, lets be real, just because a country chooses to leave EU or something does not mean you cant have freedom of travel, or work without a visa. It just gives each country a right to decide whether or not they want to.
roddy116I really fail to understand why its so important to be in the EU or why its racist to leave. Since when is not letting people live and work in a country they are not citizens of racist?
Also, why would trade agreements be an issue, there has been fair trade with EU and their will be without it.
I dont understand why a whole bunch of countries need to have a euro as well. It seems like each country will be much worse off because of countries with bad economic policies, versus countries with good economic policies.
can someone please tell me why the UK leaving EU is so horrendous? i just keep hearing its racist and bad for the economy, but from what i see people just want to be able to run things in their own country their own way.
roddy116and also, lets be real, just because a country chooses to leave EU or something does not mean you cant have freedom of travel, or work without a visa. It just gives each country a right to decide whether or not they want to.
A British member can explain why it is important, in their view, to remain.
A lot of those answers can be found in this thread as well.
But a shortened version:
Racist-A vocal portion of the "Leave" campaign wanted to leave because they were upset with the number of immigrants coming into the country, much of whom were Muslim and from distressed Muslim countries. Part of being in the EU means open borders, and once these refugees were in the EU, they were free to move wherever they wanted, including England. Ironically, leaving may open their borders even more depending on how trade negotiations go.
Trade Agreements: England loses a lot of bargaining power as they are now a standalone economy. The US will play ball, but it is very likely the agreements will be tougher on the UK than previously as they lack the size negotiate with the US. Additionally, the EU is VERY likely to come down hard on the UK in their trade agreements to make an example out of England.
Euro: An attempt to further unify the EU by integrating economies with a singular currency. You noted one of the short-comings of the policy, but the UK was on the GBP (Sterling) and had control of their own monetary policy unlike other members. Good idea in theory, but there have been issues since '08.
Travel: By leaving the EU, the UK effectively will have to kick out numerous foreign workers who work for MNCs HQed or who have branches in England if they are not given visas. Additionally, it makes it very difficult to bring in new talent if they all have to get visas. The result is that many of these larger companies will likely move their HQ where there is the ability to labor to move freely. You are already seeing this in the finance sector.
I haven't even really touched on the fact that they are now an outsider on almost all political matters in Europe, which, despite England being an island, is still VERY important.
Tl;dr:
UK is losing a lot of their clout in both the political and economic realm by leaving because they are now a standalone country. They have their sovereignty back in a day where globalization and integration rule the world and are now at odds with the status quo.
On a side note, can an English member please explain to me WTF is happening with Corbyn and that whole shebang?
.MASSHOLE.A British member can explain why it is important, in their view, to remain.
A lot of those answers can be found in this thread as well.
But a shortened version:
Racist-A vocal portion of the "Leave" campaign wanted to leave because they were upset with the number of immigrants coming into the country, much of whom were Muslim and from distressed Muslim countries. Part of being in the EU means open borders, and once these refugees were in the EU, they were free to move wherever they wanted, including England. Ironically, leaving may open their borders even more depending on how trade negotiations go.
Trade Agreements: England loses a lot of bargaining power as they are now a standalone economy. The US will play ball, but it is very likely the agreements will be tougher on the UK than previously as they lack the size negotiate with the US. Additionally, the EU is VERY likely to come down hard on the UK in their trade agreements to make an example out of England.
Euro: An attempt to further unify the EU by integrating economies with a singular currency. You noted one of the short-comings of the policy, but the UK was on the GBP (Sterling) and had control of their own monetary policy unlike other members. Good idea in theory, but there have been issues since '08.
Travel: By leaving the EU, the UK effectively will have to kick out numerous foreign workers who work for MNCs HQed or who have branches in England if they are not given visas. Additionally, it makes it very difficult to bring in new talent if they all have to get visas. The result is that many of these larger companies will likely move their HQ where there is the ability to labor to move freely. You are already seeing this in the finance sector.
I haven't even really touched on the fact that they are now an outsider on almost all political matters in Europe, which, despite England being an island, is still VERY important.
Tl;dr:
UK is losing a lot of their clout in both the political and economic realm by leaving because they are now a standalone country. They have their sovereignty back in a day where globalization and integration rule the world and are now at odds with the status quo.
On a side note, can an English member please explain to me WTF is happening with Corbyn and that whole shebang?
Yeah, corbyn personally wanted out of the EU. But labours policy was to stay in. So rather than putting his personal views aside for the good of his party, he was basically just very noncommittal throughout the campaigns and didn't contribute at all. As a result, many labour supporters voted leave so corbyn got blamed (not unfairly) for this fuck up and so a lot of labour have no confidence in him
Julius_SteezerYeah, corbyn personally wanted out of the EU. But labours policy was to stay in. So rather than putting his personal views aside for the good of his party, he was basically just very noncommittal throughout the campaigns and didn't contribute at all. As a result, many labour supporters voted leave so corbyn got blamed (not unfairly) for this fuck up and so a lot of labour have no confidence in him
Corbyn is an idiot. And this is coming from a Bernie supporter
I would like first state my position I am a pragmatic Euro sceptic who voted to remain of the basis that for its problems the real tangible benefits of being in the EU outweighed the benefits of being out of it and to clarify some points which are inaccurate and can be found in bold
.MASSHOLE.A British member can explain why it is important, in their view, to remain.
A lot of those answers can be found in this thread as well.
But a shortened version:
Racist-A vocal portion of the "Leave" campaign wanted to leave because they were upset with the number of immigrants coming into the country, much of whom were Muslim and from distressed Muslim countries. Part of being in the EU means open borders, and once these refugees were in the EU, they were free to move wherever they wanted, including England. Ironically, leaving may open their borders even more depending on how trade negotiations go. The point from "much of whom..." is false. The official campaign in regard to immigration was focussed on EU migration which is relatively free with the UK in the EU and was net 330k into the UK and there was no singling out of Muslims. Refugees are not able to freely enter the UK and the UK has held a very hard line on the number of which that can enter and as such it has created the Calais jungle. As a result of the leave vote the Calais mayor and french internal are dicussing closing the border at calais effectively moving it onto Englands shores.
Trade Agreements: England loses a lot of bargaining power as they are now a standalone economy. The US will play ball, but it is very likely the agreements will be tougher on the UK than previously as they lack the size negotiate with the US. Additionally, the EU is VERY likely to come down hard on the UK in their trade agreements to make an example out of England. There have been very mixed noises coming out of the EU and EU countries with some calling for hard lines and others trying to keep trade levels it is not unanimous.
Euro: An attempt to further unify the EU by integrating economies with a singular currency. You noted one of the short-comings of the policy, but the UK was on the GBP (Sterling) and had control of their own monetary policy unlike other members. Good idea in theory, but there have been issues since '08.
Travel: By leaving the EU, the UK effectively will have to kick out numerous foreign workers who work for MNCs HQed or who have branches in England if they are not given visas. Additionally, it makes it very difficult to bring in new talent if they all have to get visas. The result is that many of these larger companies will likely move their HQ where there is the ability to labor to move freely. You are already seeing this in the finance sector. The status of EU migrants in the UK and vice versa is not as said here. It will be a point of the negotiation when the official article is envoked and as such there is much uncertainty as to how it will go. There will be free movement for UK & EU citizens until the closing of the divorce negotiations which is likely to be 2 and a half years away. It could be as difficult as described or entirely not and it is not the current status.
I haven't even really touched on the fact that they are now an outsider on almost all political matters in Europe, which, despite England being an island, is still VERY important.
Tl;dr:
UK is losing a lot of their clout in both the political and economic realm by leaving because they are now a standalone country. They have their sovereignty back in a day where globalization and integration rule the world and are now at odds with the status quo. The UK and every other EU country still has sovereignty (not total I will be the first to conceed) and it is only because of that, that the UK has been able to decide to leave.
On a side note, can an English member please explain to me WTF is happening with Corbyn and that whole shebang?
Julius_SteezerYeah, corbyn personally wanted out of the EU. But labours policy was to stay in. So rather than putting his personal views aside for the good of his party, he was basically just very noncommittal throughout the campaigns and didn't contribute at all. As a result, many labour supporters voted leave so corbyn got blamed (not unfairly) for this fuck up and so a lot of labour have no confidence in him
Julius you are part right, Corbyn personally holds the far left euro sceptic view and attempted to put that aside for party unity. While there is some evidence which suggests his team were counter-productive, he put forward a pragmatic view on the EU and sold the socialist benefits of being in the EU and the risks of leaving with regard to workers rights. He did plenty of campaigning but there were major rallies etc which were simply ignored by terrestrial TV and main stream media as is becoming somewhat of a norm given the majority of newspapers in the UK are against him. Contrary to popular belief Corbyns message of Remaining did get through and as such 64% of labour voters voted to remain, a similar percentage of the scottish nationalist party did the same however there are not official calls for their leaders resignation, which just showing the difference in how he is treated as a party leader by comparison.
As for recent events the leadership coup, there is evidence that it has been strategically organised, staged and has been planned, no matter the result, for months now, with the idea that the country was likely heading to a general election following the referendum. His parliamentary party has been against him since his appointment by the vast majority of Labour party members and supporters. To remove him a new leader candidate will have to mount a leadership challenge to him and it is a point of legal contention whether Corbyn will be able to stand based on the party rules. If he is allowed to and the vote does go to the members it seems that he will win again and their could be changes to how the party operates or a split. If he does not win or get to stand against the challenge there could be further exodus of labour voters. Both scenarios make the Labour party's future very uncertain.
If there's something you dont understand in what I have said because I have assumed previous knowledge or otherwise I will be welcome to explain.
razors-chazI would like first state my position I am a pragmatic Euro sceptic who voted to remain of the basis that for its problems the real tangible benefits of being in the EU outweighed the benefits of being out of it and to clarify some points which are inaccurate and can be found in bold
I realized I misworded my statement about immigration. It was the EU immigration that spurned the immigrant
stance, but the xenophobia criticisms came about due to the increasing anti-immigrant (some of which was anti-Muslim) sentiment that garnered some headlines (at least in the US).
I am wrong about the refugee and open border statement, my mistake.
Seeing as the majority of the comments coming from both the English and European Parliament are calling for both a swift exit, it is very likely there will be harsher penalties as a means to dissuade other countries from attempting the same thing. Regardless, the point about England losing bargaining power is indisputable. England is much more dependent on EU trade than EU is on English trade.
The negotiations will most likely not take 2 years as I have stated above, and companies will not wait to see the fallout.
"The IoD said a quarter of the members polled in a survey were putting hiring plans on hold, while 5% said they were set to make workers redundant. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said the outcome of the referendum was negative for their business. One in five respondents, out of a poll of more than 1,000 business leaders, were considering moving some of their operations outside of the UK."
"Morgan Stanley (MS), a U.S. investment bank and financial services company with an estimated 6,000 U.K. employees, on Friday denied a BBC report that said the New York-based company had already begun the process of moving 2,000 London-based investment banking staffers to Dublin or Frankfurt.
Under a system known as "passporting rights," financial services companies operating in the U.K. have been authorized to sell their products and services across the European Union without shouldering the the expense of opening local subsidiaries on the continent."
"Japanese companies operating in Britain are likely to be forced to rethink their business strategies in Europe following Britain’s vote to leave the EU in a historic referendum Thursday."
Sovereignty is possible, but it comes at a cost we are still figuring out.
See the bold for my opinions and what I am seeing/have seen from the UK
.MASSHOLE.I realized I misworded my statement about immigration. It was the EU immigration that spurned the immigrant
stance, but the xenophobia criticisms came about due to the increasing anti-immigrant (some of which was anti-Muslim) sentiment that garnered some headlines (at least in the US). There has defnitely been a growing anti migration sentiment as there has been a general undercutting of workers pay by due to poor worker protection from government and public services have become strained through a combination of increased migration, an ageing population and attempts from successive governments to reduce public spending costs. If there was any published anti-muslim sentiment in the UK it wasnt by official leave campaigners and wasnt framed explicitly as anti-muslim by the sane media (I cant and wont speak for some of the UKs tabloids.)
I am wrong about the refugee and open border statement, my mistake. Thank you for acknowledging your mistake with so much going on and hearing it from across the Atlantic there is going to be discrepancies (which goes both ways)
Seeing as the majority of the comments coming from both the English and European Parliament are calling for both a swift exit, it is very likely there will be harsher penalties as a means to dissuade other countries from attempting the same thing. Regardless, the point about England losing bargaining power is indisputable. England is much more dependent on EU trade than EU is on English trade. Our PM has said he is not going to start the exit and left it to his successor when he stands down in September(in a devilshly smart poisoning of the chalice) and one of the leading candidates for the new PM seems to be in no rush (some are claiming he campaigned in the referendum for his own career development). Not less that there is a general feeling that there will be a snap General Election further slowing or halting the move toward leaving (one party is to campaign on ignoring the non-legally binding advisory referendum result to leave, which is more common than you would think) Latest developments out of the EU Parliament are less for a swift exit. I dont dispute the bargaining power loss and it was one of my reasons for voting remain.
The negotiations will most likely not take 2 years as I have stated above, and companies will not wait to see the fallout. Given the level of UK entanglement in the EU, I think it will take the full 2 years despite how much companies will not like it (which could as you have shown lead to companies moving to the continent or Ireland). The UK will have to throw countless lawyers and civil servants to decide what
regulations and laws from the 40 years in the EU the UK wish to keep and with no clear manifesto currently to act on it could take some time depending on the trading position of the UK and the EU.
"The IoD said a quarter of the members polled in a survey were putting hiring plans on hold, while 5% said they were set to make workers redundant. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said the outcome of the referendum was negative for their business. One in five respondents, out of a poll of more than 1,000 business leaders, were considering moving some of their operations outside of the UK."
"Morgan Stanley (MS), a U.S. investment bank and financial services company with an estimated 6,000 U.K. employees, on Friday denied a BBC report that said the New York-based company had already begun the process of moving 2,000 London-based investment banking staffers to Dublin or Frankfurt.
Under a system known as "passporting rights," financial services companies operating in the U.K. have been authorized to sell their products and services across the European Union without shouldering the the expense of opening local subsidiaries on the continent."
"Japanese companies operating in Britain are likely to be forced to rethink their business strategies in Europe following Britain’s vote to leave the EU in a historic referendum Thursday."
Sovereignty is possible, but it comes at a cost we are still figuring out. The UK could become a leading example for this cost.
It certainly is hard to get quality information over here in the US about the Brexit, especially when our two political candidates are quite the source of entertainment themselves.
But it seems like the EU parliament has said free movement of people is nonnegotiable if the UK wants access to the single bloc market.
.MASSHOLE.It certainly is hard to get quality information over here in the US about the Brexit, especially when our two political candidates are quite the source of entertainment themselves.
But it seems like the EU parliament has said free movement of people is nonnegotiable if the UK wants access to the single bloc market.
Yes and it is the problem of the Leave campaign that they were trying to be all things to all people to get the votes without any clear manifesto on what they were wanting to negotiate on. There are all manners of manifestos now coming out as people laying claim to the PM to attempt to garner votes in their membership vote, which oddly has never gone to the favourite candidate.
In terms of immigration, I believe now that there has been a Leave win, eventually it'll get worse.
Once Cameron's successor starts, they will enact Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. After the 2 or more years it takes, The Sangatte Protocol will be void and the French authorities which look after the movement into Calais from Dover will "have to go back to France" and visa versa for the English authorities.
Once the above has happened the French authorities will not care as much about who or what goes onto the ferries and it'll be down to their English counterparts to take care of.
As I live fairly close to Dover and Folkestone (less than a hours drive away), there isn't a huge amount of room for it's current residents, let alone the few thousand potential immigrants that are living in and around Calais at the moment.
did anyone watch the farage speech where face to face accused meps of never having a proper job? so apparently the guy grimacing in the corner was a surgeon haha
90053did anyone watch the farage speech where face to face accused meps of never having a proper job? so apparently the guy grimacing in the corner was a surgeon haha
