DrailJust as with all weather predictions, we don't really know what is going to happen. Historically, the El Nino should almost 'reset' things and even though that means a bad winter for the PNW, it might not actually be as bad as last year because we won't be stuck with a high pressure blocking all our weather. OR, it could be worse than last year due to the fact that it's a strong El Nino - meaning that with no chance of a stagnant high pressure, the PNW will get hit by back to back to back to back to (you get the idea) warm Pinapples, giving us nothing but rain to the peaks of all but the tallest mountains.
Generally, the Sierra Nevada fair pretty well during El Nino years, so I can totally accept a really shitty winter in the PNW if it means that California finally gets a 100%(+?) snowpack.
I also read somewhere that if the El Nino is strong enough (which this one might be), there is a chance it overpowers itself even and both Sierra Nevada and the PNW get lots of precip at normal temps (snow). From my experience it really just comes down to timing of air currents and a bit of chance/luck as to the position of the jet stream. It'd be nice if we had moderate Pinapples slam the PNW all winter and meet up with cold air coming down from Alaska just offshore making this upcoming winter the most epic of all time.
Nothing we can do but revisit in the spring and try to figure out the why to the what over the winter of 15/16
It would be almost impossible for the PNW to have even close to as bad of a winter. Sooooo many things lined up against us last year. El nino means a down year usually, but a down year is still almost literally twice as much snow as last year.
With snowlevels getting higher and higher, id be worried if i was tahoe folks. pineapple expresses could mean some serious lack of snow on the bottom half of mtns... but good ol spackle at the top. there are a lot of mtns in tahoe with low bases, and not super high summits...