Just wondering if there are any day/stock/market traders on here. Found a major discrepency in some political markets online that need serious exploiting. I THINK my math is right on this but I need to make sure before I move.
On PartyBets Jon Huntsman to be the Republican Nom for President in 2012 is at 12:1 or 8.33% chance.
On Intrade he is trading at about 17% to be the R Nom. If your not familiar with intrade basically if he becomes R nom contract closes at 100% and if he doesnt it closes at 0%. You can go Long OR Short on Intrade, unlike PartyBets where you can only go long.
Can you not go long on Partybets and short on Intrade for guarenteed profit? Your literally printing money. Your essentially buying something for $8.33 and turning around and selling it for $17.
Ex put $500 long on Huntsman to be the nom on party bets at 12:1 for $6000 potential profit
Then put X amount of money SHORT on Huntsman at 17% (or about 5:1). Only problem is you need $83 for every $17 profit so you need some serious cash.
....................^^^^^^........... ............That is what I need to figure out here. Am I way off or on crack or something. I'm totally sleep deprived but I feel like there is serious easy money to made here...
I just re-read this again and I'm thinking there is no way to completely eliminate risk but I'm so tired and going to bed ... just confusing myself now.
Spark Notes: If I have to simplify this for you can't really help me out....
inb4 head exploding pic