can you hold out for 2 weeks of crappy weather.....if you can the weather is going to change dramatically for the good read this from the most reliable source you can get....
This is one of those classic “good news/bad news”
discussions. The good news is that the signs are becoming increasingly clear that a major pattern change is on the way-one that will deliver the consistently cold air that skiers and riders have been craving since Thanksgiving. That cold will make natural snow more of a viable threat than it has been much of this season, and will help to expand trail counts from their current meager levels. Now, the bad news…before the change gets underway, yet another [profanity omitted] of unseasonably warm air will take up residence in the region later next week, and be accompanied by another [profanity omitted] of rain in all but the furthest north resorts.
In the shorter term, the news is much better, particularly in northern New York and New England. During the past 24 hours, a little piece of arctic air has slipped into the northeast corner of the country. Temperatures this morning were in the single digits from the Adirondack eastward to the mountain of Maine, and snowmakers were cranking out snow at a faster rate than at just about any time this season. Light snow fell in those same mountains yesterday, and surfaces were slowly morphing back toward packed powder. Further south, nighttime snowmaking has been going on since Wednesday night, and surfaces have been refreshed at most areas, while others were patching things up so they could (re)open. The cold air will hang over the northeast through the weekend, and trail counts should be gradually heading up. A little light snow will fall on Saturday, as well, further softening the surface snow.
While a touch of winter is enjoyed in the east, another major snowstorm is working its way out of the southern Rockies, after depositing major amounts of powder in New Mexico and southern Colorado. The storm will head toward the western great lakes, weakening as it does, but a piece of the upper level energy will make its way to the Delmarva Peninsula, forming a coastal system as it does. As was the case earlier this week, there will be a little cold air to work with. Sleet and freezing rain will be the result in the Catskills and Berkshires early next week, as the moisture collides with low level cold air. In the mountains of Northern New England, there will be a mixed mess, but most areas should be able to net something frozen. Elsewhere in the east, it will be another [profanity omitted] of rain, but amounts don’t look too heavy at the point. Another area of low pressure will move through the east later in the week, and that will open the gates for the warm air to move in for 3 to 5 days. Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal during that time, so anything that comes out of the sky will be liquid, but at least it doesn’t look like a major storm will come along during that time. Surfaces will revert to more of a loose granular consistency, and the climb of trail counts will certainly come to a halt.
Changes in the jet stream by the end of the first week in January will start to deliver the cold air that the east so desperately needs. The polar vortex, which has been parked right over the North Pole for the past 6 weeks or so, is going to split, with the biggest piece heading toward the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. In that position, it will be able to help pump up a ridge in Western Canada, which will help to deliver very cold air from Northwestern Canada. Now, the question is will the cold hold, or be yet another hit and run teaser. Ironically, the warm air that is going to invade Eastern North America later next week just won’t disappear, but it will actually help to lock in more seasonable air. You see, the warmth will move to the Northeast, toward Greenland, where it will start to produce a negative NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation. The negative NAO is found when the higher latitudes are blocked up, with jet stream featured tending to stay in a setup that included a trough over the Eastern Untied States. That trough helps to keep cold air bottled up, and it prevents it from flowing off the continent, which is what we see when the NAO is in the positive phase, as it had been since early December.
The current version of the El Nino is steadily weakening, and previous warm Decembers that coincided with weakening El Ninos produced dramatic turnarounds in the weather by the middle of January, and that is where I think we are headed. Those turnarounds had staying power, and that is a large part of the reason that I remain bullish about the second 2/3’s of this season. In the west, the current storm has been very helpful in the southern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest an Northern Rockies are going to get tagged again next week…The energy from that system will help lead to the rain event that will kick off the warm up in the East. Take heart, though…change is coming, but there will be a price to pay before reality returns. In the meantime, if you can get out this weekend, you’ll find surprisingly good surface conditions in a good portion of the east, particularly in the far Northern mountains. Whatever you do, don’t listen to the warm-mongering journalists who think we are on our way to a non-winter…they’ll be eating their words before January is over.
thanks to the skiing weatherman....